Celtics Forming Identity

February 5, 2012 by 1 Comment

The Boston Celtics began the 2012 NBA campaign with their worst start of any season since forming the “the big three” and things looked very shaky going forward with a 5-9 record. There were rumblings of breaking up the future Hall of Famers and starting from scratch. The Celtics went from having a team that was like family that played together by their “guiding principle” ‘Ubuntu’, to having a team filled with a bunch of guys who’d never played together before and who essentially felt like roster fillers to play alongside the “The Big Three” while they gave it their last try.

This past offseason the Celtics added eight new players to a team that was already dealing with the sudden and scary news that Jeff Green, who was supposed to be the anchor of the C’s second unit, was lost for the entire season due to heart surgery to repair an aortic aneurysm. Having the season cut short due to the lockout was an added obstacle and something that every team had to deal with, but for the Celtics it made things even tougher. Smart and motivated players who worked out, were able to stay in shape during the lockout, while others assumed that the entire NBA season was lost, ditched the gym for the couch and created a season of their own on Xbox, leaving themselves out of game shape and vulnerable to injuries.

The combination of introducing out of shape players and new teammates to one another, while not having a full training camp or nearly enough preparation time together, proved to be a challenge. The Celtics are at their best when they are clicking as a defensive unit, something they couldn’t accomplish quickly enough with all the new faces. Going against established teams, it probably wasn’t fair to expect the Celtics to perform at a very high level and Paul Pierce’ injured heel to start the season only made matters worse. The defending champion Mavericks are another example of a team that had to deal with player movement and it affected their play as well. It took both teams a month to do so, but it seems that they are now heading in the right direction.

The Celtics second unit has turned itself into a “hustle and defend” unit. Avery Bradley can at times suffocate opposing guards, sometimes picking up the pressure before half court and leaving little time on the shot clock for the opposing team to set up and run a play. You can see the frustration boil over on opposing players faces and through their body language. Watch this clip of the Celtics 2nd unit defense and Avery Bradley getting under Demar Derozan’s skin.

Over their last nine games, the Celtics are holding opponents to just 38% shooting from the field, 25% from 3-point range and 79.3 PPG. They are 7-2 during this stretch and they are doing it without Rajon Rondo who injured his wrist against Toronto on January 18th, as well as Ray Allen who missed three games during this stretch with a jammed ankle. It’s an encouraging sign that the Celtics were able to battle through injuries and have bench players like rookie E’twaun Moore, Sasha Pavlovic and Avery Bradley step up. It seems that the Celtics are finally building some chemistry and understanding their respective roles on the team. With a dominant 100-64 home win over the Raptors, the Celtics moved to 11-10, good for second in the Atlantic division and seventh in the Eastern Conference standings. This is only the second time this whole season that the Celtics are above .500. It’s not what was expected, but at least the C’s are finally becoming a team.

That being said, the C’s still have plenty of issues they need to work out. They haven’t been able to hold onto big leads or close out quarters well. They have yet to play a complete 48 minute game and they haven’t shown that they can consistently compete against the NBA’s elite teams. The Celtics are in the midst of a home stand and have six of their next seven games at TD Garden. They need to use this stretch of games as a way of catapulting themselves back into eastern conference relevance. They play the Knicks, Grizzlies, Bobcats and LA Lakers (two road wins all season) – All winnable games. The real tests will come right before the All-Star break when the Celtics go on the road to face Chicago, Detroit, Dallas, and OKC and then again shortly after the All-Star break, when the Celtics go out west on March 11th to face the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors, Kings and Nuggets, only to turn around and head east to face Atlanta, Milwaukee and a strong 76ers team all on the road, not seeing the parquet floor again until March 25th.

Injuries are always bad, but Rondo’s wrist injury may have been a blessing in disguise. It allowed the bench players to get increased minutes and to get comfortable with one another out on the court. It forced Doc Rivers to mix and match the lineups, having everyone play together and establishing chemistry. Most importantly, it gave the players and coaches the confidence to know that they can be relied on.

At the conclusion of this difficult road trip, the Celtics will have already played 47 games with only 19 to go. This difficult stretch for the Celtics will paint a clear picture of how they will perform in the playoffs. The return of Rajon Rondo, playing with a determined Paul Pierce, combined with an added confidence and comfort level from the bench players, should boost this teams winning percentage and get them close to the level of play we are accustomed to, and hopefully no worse than a five seed in the Eastern conference. The Celtics are still far from being championship contenders but at least the 2012 Celtics are finally forming an identity.

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Weinstein Column: Boston Celtics Running on Empty

January 15, 2012 by Leave a Comment

It’s only 11 games into the season and the Celtics already look like a tired team that has run out of gas and have nothing left to give. Their recent losses to Indiana (twice), Dallas, and Chicago, further strengthen the case that this team has passed its expiration date. It was expected that the Celtics would show up for at least two of those games, but they responded with four losses. What’s even worse is that three of those losses came in Boston where the Celtics usually play their best ball. A loss to an Eric Gordon-less New Orleans (3-9) earlier in the year, just pours salt on the wound. If this team thinks they can just coast into the playoffs playing mediocre basketball, they’re sadly mistaken.

It’s worthwhile to note that the Celtics four wins this season have been against the three worst teams in the NBA; Detroit, New Jersey and Washington (twice) who have a combined record of 7-30. Doc Rivers stated last week that the Celtics can still be elite. Not a chance!

As of today, the Celtics wouldn’t even qualify for the playoffs. They are tied with the Milwaukee Bucks (4-7) for ninth place in the eastern conference. They should be ashamed of themselves. The Celtics average just about 90 points per game this year, fifth worst in the NBA. They are dead last in rebounds per game and 20th in Turnovers per game. These aren’t issues that can be fixed overnight or with game planning. The Celtics are old, undermanned and undersized.

It’s not for lack of effort but the Celtics just don’t have what it takes to win anymore – legs. With Avery Bradley struggling (not that he’s a difference maker), Doc Rivers, who rarely plays rookies, was ‘forced’ to put E’twaun Moore into the game against Indiana, something he hasn’t had to do since the 18 win 2006-2007 season when then rookie Rajon Rondo had his time to mature. The nicest and most aggressive play so far this season by any Celtic was a put-back slam by rookie JaJuan Johnson in the closing seconds of a home loss against Dallas. That the rookies are even mentioned in the conversation pretty much sums up the Celtics season so far.

Coming into the season it looked like the Celtics would be able to win games based on their experience, determination, and sense of urgency. They’ve lost because of their horrible play in opening quarters, mental lapses and an inconsistent offense that goes long stretches without scoring.  The Celtics are playing like a bunch of grumpy old men.

After witnessing the 2012 version of the Boston Celtics play, it is apparent that they should no longer be considered an elite team. They should no longer be considered a team that has what it takes to make the NBA Finals or even win a first round playoff series. They are merely another middle of the pack team at best.

If the Celtics can’t figure out how to start games stronger without having to battle back from a 10 point deficit each night, even against average teams, they are in for a rude awakening and a very embarrassing departure from Boston.

On the bright side, the Celtics play the Wizards again on the 22nd of January.

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Are This Years Celtics Better Than Last Years Squad?

December 28, 2011 by 1 Comment

Are the 2012 Celtics better than last year’s version? The Celtics will be rocking the same starting five from a year ago with Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O’neal. It’s their bench that has been entirely revamped, as the team attempts what may ultimately be the final run of the “Big Three” era. Are their reserves better than last years? Full Story…

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Rajon Rondo’s Recipe for Greatness

June 29, 2011 by Leave a Comment

It may seem crazy to say that Rajon Rondo could eventually be considered a top ten point guard of all-time, but based on his current production, there is a good chance he could come close when all is said and done.

The graph below shows the top seven all-time NBA assists leaders and some of their stats through the first five seasons or ~11,000 – ~13,000 Minutes of their careers in comparison to Rajon Rondo’s entire career thus far, five seasons (12,269 total minutes). Everyone except for Steve Nash, Isiah Thomas and Oscar Robertson, who are marked with **, played five seasons.

All the numbers and averages below are from the first five seasons or ~11,000 – ~13,000 total minutes played of these players’ careers.

All-Time Rank Player Total Minutes Total Assists Avg. Assists Total All Star-Game Appearances by Teammates
1 John Stockton 11,296  Thru 5 seasons 3,941 9.6 2
2 Jason Kidd 12,884  Thru 5 seasons 3,170 9.3 1
3 Mark Jackson 12,210  Thru 5 seasons 3,297 8.3 5
4 Magic Johnson 12,671  Thru 5 seasons 3,327 9.8 8
5 **Oscar Robertson 13,615  **Thru 4 seasons 3,215 10.4 5
6 **Steve Nash 13,085  **Thru 7 seasons 2,632 5.4 6
7 **Isiah Thomas 11,622  **Thru 4 Seasons 3,226 10.1 5
? ? Rajon Rondo 12269  Thru 5 seasons 2,903 7.6 12

As you can see from the chart above, Rondo is just a smidgen behind these all-time greats, with the exception, of course, of John Stockton, who no one will ever catch.

For the following all-time assists leaders, here are their averages of assists per game for last seven seasons of their careers:

J. Stockton – 8.5 APG

J. Kidd – 8.8 APG

M. Jackson – 3.2 APG

M. Johnson – 11.4 APG

O. Robertson – 8.2 APG

S. Nash – 10.9 APG

I. Thomas – 8.2 APG

G. Payton – 6.1 APG

R. Strickland – 5.7 APG

M. Cheeks – 5.9 APG

Over the last seven years of their careers, these “top ten” all-time assists leaders combined averaged only 7.7 assists per game. Additionally, the top ten all-time assists leaders played for a combined average of 16 seasons.

Five out of the top seven players listed above, had stretches in their careers averaging at least ten assists per game for at least four straight seasons. Jason Kidd would have as well, but he had years in which he averaged 9.8 and 9.9 APG, in what would have been the third and fourth consecutive years of double digit assists, while Mark Jackson only averaged 10 or more assists twice in his entire career.

Since entering the league, Rondo has improved his average of assists per game by an average of 1.85 a year (he averaged 11.2 this past season). For arguments sake, lets say that Rondo’s averages of assists per game over the next four seasons will either plateau or decline only slightly. Using the aforementioned players career averages, it’s likely that Rondo will play another 11 seasons (16 total), while playing 77 games a year (his season avg. so far) and averaging at least 10 assists per game over the next four seasons (77 games X 10.5 APG X 4 seasons = 3,234 assists). It’s also likely that he’ll average seven assists per game over the last seven years of his career(77 games X 7 APG X 7 seasons= 3,773 assists). At this pace Rondo will have accumulated a total of 9,910 career assists. This would put him fifth on the current all-time assists list, ahead of Oscar Robertson. Steve Nash and Jason Kidd continue to move up the list and there’s another pair of younger point guards playing now that are pretty damn good that intend on leaving their own mark.

Projecting these numbers for Rondo isn’t all that far-fetched considering how much he has improved each season and how he stands today in comparison to the other all-time greats. Having Ray Allen as a teammate for at least another year, as well as having Paul Pierce, one of the purest scorers in the game, can’t hurt. Rondo would salivate over a Dwight Howard signing in 2012, and if that unlikely event ever happened, watch out!

One day, Rondo, Chris Paul and Deron Williams will all be on the top ten all-time assists list. Andre Miller, who is currently active, is 14th on the  list and needs to average just five assists per game for the next two seasons to crack the top ten. Regardless of Paul’s, Williams’ and Miller’s rankings at the end of their careers, none will have an impact on whether or not Rondo reaches this milestone as long as he sticks fairly close to this trajectory. If Rondo does end up on the top ten assists list, he will have at least catapulted himself into the discussion of being a top ten point guard of all-time, doing something nobody thought possible.

All Time leaders: Assists

Active leaders: Assists

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2011 NBA Draft Preview: Boston Celtics

June 23, 2011 by Leave a Comment

The Chatter Box

“We have to address size in the off-season for sure; it doesn’t necessarily have to be the draft.” – Danny Ainge.

“I agree with that. Usually if size is available with the 25th pick, I don’t know if that’s a good sign or a bad sign (chuckles). Sometimes you can get lucky and I’ve said it for years, if there’s a guy there who can play Danny will know it”. – Doc Rivers

The Celtics have several issues they need to address for the upcoming season; size and scoring. The 25th and 55th picks will not bring in a starter or a game changer but could add some height and a spark off the bench, something the Celtics desperately need.

Danny Ainge has been known to draft very well and hopefully that trend can continue. The Celtics absolutely need to add size up front but even in their situation they won’t gamble on a big man if a better player is still available.

Jeremy Tyler- Center/Power Forward, 6’11” 262lbs  6/12/91 (20 years old)

7’5” wingspan – Tokyo Apache

2010-2011 stats: N/A

Tyler averaged 9.9 PPG for the Tokyo Apache this past season. He is an extremely athletic big man but has maturity issues. He skipped his senior year in high school to play in Europe and had a terrible first year overseas in Israel averaging two points and two rebounds a game. He should be available for the C’s with the 25th pick. The more I read about him, the less I want the Celtics to draft him.

Jermaine O’Neal is currently the only Center on the Celtics roster. Tyler would immediately address a hole the Celtics have at the Center position, but because he did not play in the NCAA, he is considered a gamble. Tyler should still be around for the 25th pick.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaJcyVNju4k

Reminds me of: Kwame Brown

Why the C’s would draft him: Tyler is a very risky pick, but he is tempting. He would immediately add size at the Center position and from what I’ve gathered, some fits too. KG would have a field day with this guy.

Jamine Peterson – Small Forward, 6’6” 230lbs 7/29/88 (22 years old) 6’10.5” wingspan – NBDL, New Mexico Thunderbirds

2009-2010 stats (Providence Friars): 30.4 MPG 19.6 PPG 10.2 RPG

2010-2011 stats: 23.6 MPG 13.4 PPG 5.9 RPG 65.8% FT 45.7% FG 36.3% 3P

Peterson is a very strong small forward. He put up some serious numbers with the Providence Friars before mysteriously being dismissed from the team for what the University called a “violation of team rules.”

Peterson had just come off of a breakout season where he averaged 19.6 PPG and 10.2 RPG including a 29-point, 20-rebound performance against Rutgers, a 24-point, 18-rebound performance against Pitt, and a monstrous 38-point and 16-rebound performance in a 109-106 loss to Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyjxC0Q5uI4

Reminds me of: A stronger, less athletic Jason Richardson

Why the C’s would draft him: The Celtics would draft Peterson as a backup for Allen and Pierce. He has an NBA-ready body and some pro ball under his belt.

Jon Leuer – Power Forward, 6’11” 225lbs 5/14/89 (22 years old)

7’0” wingspan –Wisconsin Badgers

2010-2011 stats: 33.5 MPG 18.3 PPG 7.2 RPG 84% FT 47% FG 37% 3P

Leuer was one of the most productive players in the NCAA this past season, ranking in the top 25 for PER (Player Efficiency Rating). He’s tall, skilled and has an excellent work ethic. He was a late bloomer but should continue to improve. I think he could be a very productive NBA role player and would be happy to see the Celtics draft this guy. Leuer’s got exceptionally good footwork, dribbling, and shooting skills for someone his size. He compared himself to Ryan Anderson in his pre draft workout.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npjVESMUrsc

Reminds me of: Nick Collison with more range.

Why the C’s would draft him: Leuer is Nenad Krstic with more range and an almost as difficult last name to read. He immediately addresses the gaping hole at the Center/Power-Forward position for the Celtics.

Reggie Jackson – Point Guard, 6’3” 208lbs 4/16/90 (21 years old)

7’0” wingspan – Boston College Golden Eagles

2010-2011 stats: 34.1 MPG 18.2 PPG 4.5 APG 4.3 RPG 55.6% FG 42% 3P

Jackson has excellent body control and is a super athlete with an insane 7’0” wingspan! He can create his own shot but is also a willing and good passer. Jackson is withholding medical reports of his injury and hasn’t appeared in any pre-draft workouts thus far. The Celtics have been rumored to be the team to have promised Jackson that they are definitely drafting him, which could be the reason he’s been withholding his medical information and skipping workouts.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byJxflDDqkQ

Reminds me of: A poor man’s Gilbert Arenas

Why the C’s would draft him: Ainge loves drafting combo guards and was in attendance for many of Jackson’s games at BC. He’s a big advocate of his.

Marshon Brooks – Shooting Guard, 6’5” 195lbs 1/26/89 (22 years old) 7’1” wingspan – Providence Friars

2010-2011 stats: 36.5 MPG 24.6 PPG 7 RPG 2.5 ASP 1.5 SPG 55.9% FG

Marshon Brooks can score. He has NBA moves and range to go along with his above average athleticism. He can create his own shot and can finish at the rim. Brooks does force himself into difficult shots and this sometimes leads to errant passes and turnovers. If he can find a balance in the NBA without having to dominate the ball he’d be a great running mate for Rondo…Another combo Guard.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9v8W2pumHX8

Reminds me of: Jamal Crawford

Why the C’s would draft him: He’s instant offense off the bench, something the Celtics desperately needed this past season. Another Ainge love connection with a combo guard.

Nikola Vucevic – Center, 7’0” 260lbs 10/24/90 (20 years old)

7’0” wingspan – USC Trojans

2010-2011 stats: 34.9 MPG 17.1 PPG 10.3 RPG 50% FG 75% FT

Vucevic is the tallest player in the draft and also one of the biggest at 260lbs. He has a nice jump shot for a seven-footer, and is a good defensive rebounder. He needs work on his post game and low post presence.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcgpIuD_JyQ

Reminds me of: Mehmet Okur

Why the C’s would draft him: Vucevic is a true Center and would address the Celtics issue at that position…He’s got some skills too.

Jordan Williams – PF/C 6’9” 250lbs 10/11/90 (20 years old)

7’0” winsgspan – Maryland Terrapins

2010-2011 stats: 32.5 MPG 16.9 PPG 11.8 RPG 53.8 FG% 1.4 BPG 57.5 FT%

With the return of Big Baby up in the air, drafting Williams would make sense. He has excellent hands and can finish around the rim. Most of his scoring comes from inside the paint, but if he plans on having a lengthy NBA career, he’ll need to improve his midrange game and passing skills. The best thing going for Williams is his rebounding on both ends of the floor. He has put in work to lose weight and get into NBA shape, an encouraging sign for scouts.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKDwJsPlOJw

Reminds me of: Sean May

Why the C’s would draft him: Filling the hole Glen Davis may leave. Williams would add rebounding immediately. His game needs a lot of work but rebounding is one thing this kid can do at any level.

Nolan Smith: - PG/SG 190lbs 7/25/88 (22 years old)

6’5” wingspan – Duke Blue Devils

2010-2011 stats: 34.0 MPG 20.6 PPG 4.5 RPG 5.1 APG 45.8% FG 81% FT

Nolan Smith has NBA-ready shooting skills and defensive capability guarding Point Guards. He had a lot on his shoulders at Duke, playing Point Guard and Shooting Guard, especially when Kyrie Irving went down with a toe injury. Smith is a winner and will be a solid NBA player. He’s not flashy or overly athletic, but has great dribbling skills, a high basketball IQ, and puts forth great effort. He needs to work on going to the rim and finishing strong.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2q3Rk0UESRg

Reminds me of: Better version of Chris Duhon

Why the C’s would draft him: Smith can come off the bench and contribute right away. He can play the Point Guard position but also has quickness and length to play Shooting Guard. Ainge loves his combo guards, and Smith comes from a winning system.

Trey Thompkins: – Power Forward 6’10” 240lbs 5/29/90 (21 years old)

7’1” wingspan – Georgia Bulldogs

2010-2011 stats – 31.2 MPG 16.4 PPG 7.6 RPG 1.7 BPG 48.1 FG% 68.9 FT%

Thompkins has good size at the Power Forward position. He had an excellent shooting sophomore season but his numbers dipped this past year. He has a well-rounded offensive game with above average dribbling skills for a guy his size. He needs to get in better shape and keep his head in the game more, but if he can right those two things, he could be a good piece to have coming off the bench.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMwrSY9cT5o

Reminds me of: Glen Davis with some shot blocking

Why the C’s would draft him: Thompkins would be another guy who could fill in for Glen Davis if he departs via free agency. He’s got a nice touch for a guy his size and would probably see minutes because of the Celtics lack of big men.

JaJuan Johnson: Power Forward 6’10” 220 lbs 2/8/89 (22 years old)

7’2” wingspan – Purdue Boilermakers

2010-2011 stats: 35.4 MPG 20.5 PPG 8.6 RPG 2.3 BPG 49.4 FG% 80.9 FT%

Johnson has been improving his jump shot since his freshmen year in college and now has college three point range and an ability to knock down jumpers off of the pick and pop. He needs to improve his defense down low as well as his rebounding, something that suffered due to the fact that his game was very perimeter oriented.

Johnson has the tools to succeed in the NBA and if he can add some muscle, he could become a valuable asset. He’ll need some fine tuning and dedication to work on those things.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPzSTWi_jd4

Reminds me of: A poor man’s Marcus Camby.

Why the C’s would draft him: Johnson would add size and serve as a backup to (gulp) Jermaine O’Neal. He could be a guy that turns into a solid 12 ppg and 8 rpg player in the pros if he puts the work in, as he already has the size and skill.

Draft Summary

I think the Celtics draft Reggie Jackson from Boston College if he’s still around for the 25th pick. Hearing Ainge and Doc Rivers talk about the lack of quality big men at that stage in the draft, and that they have the whole off-season to address that issue, shows that they are not afraid to draft small. Ainge and Rivers probably both agree that there will be big men available later on with the 55th pick that would have been around for the 25th as well.

It’s been rumored that the Celtics might even trade up in the draft because their logic is that they’ll be able to get whomever they’re targeting now, later on in the draft. If the Celtics really want Jackson or Brooks, then trading up might not make sense.

Out of the ten guys I reviewed, I’d be happy if the Celtics grabbed:

Reggie Jackson, PG – Boston College.

Marshon Brooks, SG – Providence.

Jon Leuer, PF – Wisconsin.

Nolan Smith, Combo Guard -  Duke

 

Other draft possibilities:

1.    Tyler Honeycutt 6’8” SG/SF – UCLA  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWjQRlrPPpc

2.    Justin Harper 6’9” PF – Richmond  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkGyGVQEUHQ

3.    Shelvin Mack 6’2” PG/SG – Butler  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sqn7v208S0Q&feature=related

4.    Josh Selby 6’3” PG/SG – Kansas  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34CIKkkZ1tc

5.    Markieff Morris 6’9” PF – Kansas  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFxS1wGDZTs

 

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